Fritz 21 Handbook

Winning probability

The program can display position evaluations as winning probabilities.

Example

Example: the notation reads 1.e4 c5 54% /3 3 2.Nf3 Nc6 54% /4 3 - what do the additional numbers (3 3 4 3) mean alongside the 54%, and does 54% mean that after these two moves White has a winning probability of 54% and thus a losing probability of 46%?

Example

And how high is the draw probability in that case? Surely it should be taken into account as well - after all, a draw is an important factor in chess too.

The winning probabilities in the example above are interpreted as follows.

Yes, White scores with 18% probability. White wins with a probability of +10%, the game is drawn with the value =16%, and White loses with the value -74%. No explicit calculation is necessary, because the result is shown unambiguously as 18%.

Regarding the values entered within the notation:

Next to the percentage winning probability, the search depth and the time used are entered there - just as in the classic evaluation display.

A mathematical formula for converting back to the classic evaluation display is likewise not necessary.

Example

If you deactivate the "Display winning probability" option, the chess engine's evaluation will be shown with the classic evaluation display, just like the other engines.